Extreme situations often lead to severe corrections, with traders creating potential anomalies in currency movements. Amid a global trade war, speculators are betting on illiquid emerging currencies rising against the U.S. dollar, with significant wagers on the Taiwan and Singapore dollars. As bets grow larger, they signal possible reversals, especially with less liquid currencies carrying greater risk. Additionally, there are substantial bets against the U.S. dollar, including a notable increase in wagers on the Japanese yen. This marks a shift as traders actively oppose the dollar during perceived risk-averse conditions. The conflicting bets, with distinct large positions on both rising and falling currencies, suggest an unlikely scenario where all traders could be correct, highlighting the unusual division in market sentiment.

According to the IMF the small shift in the dollar's percentage of global FX reserves contradicts the speculation surrounding its decline, which has prompted traders to short it in favor of what they perceive as safer currencies. The International Monetary Fund reports that the U.S. dollar's share of global currency reserves decreased to 57.7% in the first quarter of 2025, down from 57.8% at the end of 2024. With total reserves surpassing $12 trillion, this represents a $7 billion reduction in the amount of dollars held by central banks, contrasted with the $55 billion sold by IMM traders this year, leading to a current net short position of $20 billion. A Bank of America survey from June indicated that investors are believed to be holding their largest underweight position in the dollar in two decades. IMM data, which incorporates several bets on the dollar's increase, might not fully capture the depth of short positions. Some of this year's bets were made against highly speculative currencies like the Taiwan and Singapore dollars, the Mexican peso, and the Brazilian real. Consequently, amid this year's dollar sell-off, traders not only hold substantial amounts of euros and yen, which they consider safe, but also significant quantities of riskier currencies, while central banks have remained loyal to the dollar, which has brought them considerable value appreciation since 2011. This year's approximately 5% decline in the dollar's trade-weighted value has slightly lessened potential FX returns of around 44%, possibly laying the groundwork for even larger gains in the future.