BTC Testing New Highs
Bitcoin is on watch today after the futures market broke out to fresh all-time highs of $125,300. The move comes on the back of Tuesday’s weaker-than-forecast US inflation data which has helped underpin risk sentiment through the week. Despite the initial push higher, BTC has found selling interest into highs with price since reversing back below the prior $123,710 highs. As such, risks of a double top are still seen, particularly given the strong bearish divergence we’re seeing in momentum studies.
ETF Demand & Trump 401k Approval
Bitcoin prices have risen sharply this month with the futures market rallying more than 11% off the month’s lows. The move higher comes against a backdrop of growing political support and mainstream uptake. Trump signing an executive order to allow for BTC to be included in 401k portfolios marks a major milestone for the crypto community and if pension fund demand starts to grow this could help drive BTC firmly higher. Indeed, institutional demand has been a key upside driver for BTC with BTC ETF’s continuing to see soaring demand. Total net assets for BTC ETFs reached $170 billion this month as prices pushed higher. The Bitcoin market now stands at around $2.5 trillion in total, making it the fifth largest global asset class.
Trump-Putin Talks
Looking ahead, traders will be monitoring incoming news-flow around Trump’s meeting with Putin. If any progress is made, this should be firmly bullish for risk sentiment, helping lift BTC prices further near-term. If talks fail, however, this could fuel some long-covering in BTC as risk assets recoil near-term.
Technical Views
BTC
The rally in BTC has stalled again into a further test of the rising wedge resistance line around the prior 2025 highs. With strong bearish divergence, risks of a correction lower are seen if we break back below the $121,500 level. While above that level, focus remains on a further breakout into new highs.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.