SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 24/7/25
WEEKLY & DAILY LEVELS
***QUOTING ES1! CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~10 POINTS***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6300/6280
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6410 SUP 6260
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 6380/70
DAILY RANGE RES 6464 SUP 6347
2 SIGMA RES 6523 SUP 6285
GAP LEVELS 6147/6077/6018/5843/5741/5710
VIX DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 17.75
DAILY MARKET CONDITION - ONE TIME FRAMING UP 6353
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong and consistent upward movement.
TRADES & TARGETS
SHORT ON TEST/REJECT DAILY RANGE RES TARGET DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE
LONG ON TEST/REJECT DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE AT OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
U.S. EQUITIES UPDATE: TRADE TALKS & RETAIL MOVES
FICC and Equities | 23 July 2025 |
Market Recap:
- S&P 500: +78bps, closed at 6,358 with MOC flows of -$350M to sell.
- Nasdaq 100 (NDX): +43bps, ended at 23,162.
- Russell 2000 (R2K): +151bps, finished at 2,294.
- Dow Jones: +114bps, closed at 45,010.
- Volume: 19.8B shares traded across all U.S. equity exchanges vs YTD daily average of 16.8B.
- Volatility (VIX): -685bps at 15.37.
- Crude Oil: +17bps at $65.25.
- U.S. 10-Year Yield: +3bps at 4.38%.
- Gold: -134bps at $3,397.
- Dollar Index (DXY): -17bps at 97.25.
- Bitcoin: Unchanged at $118,014.
Key Drivers:
Broader indices climbed higher on optimism surrounding trade agreements. Reports from the FT indicated progress on a U.S.-EU trade deal, potentially imposing 15% tariffs on European imports, following a similar update with Japan overnight.
Momentum longs were boosted by GEV’s strong 14% EPS/revisions, though the market remains tight (IWM outperforming SPY). Short low-momentum trades continue to unwind, with net shorts creeping higher. Over the last five sessions, the most shorted basket has been nine times more volatile than the SPX.
Meme stocks made a comeback reminiscent of 2021, with notable moves in GPRO, DNUT, KSS, OPEN, BULL, and RKT. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 achieved its 62nd consecutive day above the 20-day moving average, a streak last seen in January 1999.
Floor Activity:
Activity levels were moderate, rated 5/10. The floor ended +120bps better to buy, above the 20-day average of +77bps. Long-only funds were in “aggressively watch” mode, finishing as slight net buyers with demand across industrials and tech. Hedge funds were also slight net buyers, focusing on discretionary, industrials, and financials.
Derivatives Update:
Markets rallied on positive tariff developments from Japan and the EU. Volatility declined, and skew flattened amid the rally. Clients continue to rent hedges via SPY downside as volatility eases. The VIX roll-down is one of the steepest in 3-4 years.
Heading into earnings season, options imply average earnings-day moves of +/-4.8%, the lowest in two years. For broad megacap tech plays, QQQ gamma appears cheap in the short run relative to SPX. On the micro side, AMZN upside and NVDA volatility look attractive. The week’s remaining straddle priced at ~0.63%. (h/t Manny Meltzer)
Post-Bell Earnings Highlights:
- GOOG: +1% (from -2%). Strong beats on YouTube, cloud, and EPS, though a surprise capex raise was noted. Stock rallied into the print.
- TSLA: -1%. Few surprises; guidance was vague, but margins came in slightly above consensus. EBITD margin beat driven by gross margin upside. Some earlier concerns about margins post-delivery beat were alleviated.
- CMG: -10%. Missed -3% comp bogey and cut FY comp guidance. Q3 QTD updates on the call may reveal further underwhelming results. Expectations had softened but still disappointing.
- NOW: +7%. Beat and raised guidance.
- IBM: -5%. Software revenue grew +8% y/y constant currency, a slight deceleration from +9% y/y last quarter.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!