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US Data on Deck
The US Dollar is rallying firmly through early European trading on Thursday as traders brace for a busy day of US data and Fed commentary, including comments from Fed’s Powell. On the data front, we have the final 2Q GDP print, August durable goods, and weekly unemployment claims. GDP is expected flat at 3% while the bigger focus will be on the jobless figure, expected at 224k from 219k. If seen, this should curb the rally in USD through the end of the week. The downward trend in jobs data has been a key focus point for the Fed and any fresh evidence of labour market weakness should feed into heightened November cut expectations.
Fed Speakers to Give Insight on Rates
On the commentary side, traders will be looking to comments from Fed’s Powell, the first since the September FOMC, for a cue on future rate moves. Following that, we have a slew of Fed speakers on deck today meaning there is plenty of volatility risk for USD as traders brace to receive greater insight into the Fed’s thinking on rates. Given that pricing for a November rate cut is only around 60%, there is plenty of room for this to move higher in response to any dovish signals today, with USD to weaken accordingly. On the other hand, if we hear a more neutral tone from policymakers, this could see November easing expectations scaled back, letting USD correct higher here.
Technical Views
DXY
DXY is attempting to break back above the 100.93 level currently. If successful, bulls will then be looking for a test of the 102.46 level and retest of the broken bull trend line next. To the downside, 99.67 is the next support to watch.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.